Tid: 25 april 2013 kl 15.15-16.00.

Föredragshållare: Professor Serik Sagitov, Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg.

Titel: Phylogenetic confidence intervals for the optimal trait value

Abstract Think of n related species whose phylogenetic tree is unknown. This tree is convenient to model as a conditioned Yule process. Suppose we are interested in a certain trait value which evolves along any given lineage according to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with an unknown optimal trait value and a given adaptation rate. We suggest three approximate confidence interval formulae for the optimal trait value (qualitatively depending on whether the adaptation rate is smaller, equal, or larger than the threshold value 1/2 of the speciation rate in the Yule model). These formulae are based on the corresponding sample of n species values which are dependent due to the shared evolution.

This is a joint ongoing project with Krzysztof Bartoszek. The talk will be understandable for a broad audience of mathematicians and theoretical biologists (including PhD students).

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