Tid: 7 juni 2012 kl 13.00-14.00.

Föredragshållare: Lennart Mumm

Titel: Reject Inference in Online Purchases (Examensarbete - Master thesis)

Abstract As accurately as possible, creditors wish to determine if a potential debtor will repay the borrowed sum. To achieve this mathematical models known as credit scorecards quantifying the risk of default are used. In this study it is investigated whether the scorecard can be improved by using reject inference and thereby include the characteristics of the rejected population when refining the scorecard. The reject inference method used is parcelling. Logistic regression is used to estimate probability of default based on applicant characteristics. Two models, one with and one without reject inference, are compared using Gini coefficient and estimated profitability. The results yield that, when comparing the two models, the model with reject inference both has a slightly higher Gini coefficient as well as showing an increase in profitability. Thus, this study suggests that reject inference does improve the predictive power of the scorecard, but in order to verify the results additional testing on a larger calibration set is needed.

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